Forecasting

HURRICANE FORECASTING: THE DILEMMA
Gene Hafele
NWS Houston/Galveston

 

Hurricanes are one of nature's most feared systems. They are not the largest nor are they nature's most violent storm; but they combine those qualities as no other phenomenon does, as if they were designed to be engines of death and destruction. In 1900, when over 8000 people lost their lives as a hurricane moved in over Galveston Island, there were no satellites, there were no radars and communication was slow at best. Storms went undetected until they thrust toward land. Today we have a new satellite system that is capable of following storms when they first leave the African Coast as a disturbed area of weather. These disturbances can then be followed as they develop into tropical storms when they receive names that will stay with them for the life of these storms. The satellite will continue to monitor the storm as it becomes a hurricane and either heads out to sea or sets its aim on an ever-increasingly populated coastline. As the storm drifts closer to land, it comes under surveillance by weather reconnaissance aircraft of the U.S. Air Force Reserve, the famous "Hurricane Hunters". The Hurricane Hunters bump through the turbulent interiors of the storms to obtain precise fixes of the position of the eye and measure winds and pressure fields. Finally, the approaching storm comes within range of a Doppler radar network stretching from Texas to Maine and from Miami to the Lesser Antilles. The Doppler radar is capable of giving precise position data as well as measurements of wind speeds and rainfall. The National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center has the responsibility for integrating all of these meteorological data sources, combining that data with computer models of the atmosphere to monitor and forecast the movement and intensity of the storm. Over the past 30 years the accuracy of the forecasts have steadily improved. With the use of a more sophisticated satellite system, the new Doppler radar, and new and improved models of the atmosphere, the forecasts will continue to improve. Despite the continued improvement in forecasts, it is also known that science will not, for the foreseeable future, provide a full solution to the problems of hurricane safety.		In 1983, Hurricane Alicia, a minimum category 3 storm visited the upper Texas Coast. This was the last major Hurricane to affect this area. How many people that now live along the Upper Texas Coast lived here in 1983 and understand the impact a major hurricane can have on your area? Not enough, unfortunately. The rapid development of America's coastal areas has placed millions of people with little or no hurricane experience in the path of these lethal storms. The answer for this vulnerable coastal population is community preparedness and public education in the hope that education and planning before the fact will save lives and lessen the impact of the hurricane and what its effects are likely to be. The 1995 Hurricane Season was the second most active Hurricane Season on record with 19 names storms and 11 hurricanes. Texas was spared during 1995 with Tropical Storm Dean being our only visitor. This yearís Hurricane Season will probably be less active than 1995, but it only takes one hurricane to make landfall somewhere along the upper Texas coast to make this a bad year for the residents. The forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center will continue to improve, but they always have some error in timing and intensity. Its up to you, me and all of our neighbors to be prepared in case of a Hurricane Opal pays a visit to the Upper Texas Coast this year, or next. It is not a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN the next major hurricane will revisit the Upper Texas Coast.

 

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